Migration researchers have found “climate’s subtle fingerprints almost everywhere,” writes Abrahm Lustgarten in a recent article for the New York Times Magazine.
“As the mechanisms of climate migration have come into sharper focus — food scarcity, water scarcity and heat — the latent potential for large-scale movement comes to seem astronomically larger,” writes Lustgarten.
The New York Times Magazine and ProPublica joined with the Pulitzer Center in an effort to model, for the first time, how people will move across borders.
While the model is not definitive, “every one of the scenarios it produces points to a future in which climate change, currently a subtle disrupting influence, becomes a source of major disruption, increasingly driving the displacement of vast populations,” Lustgarten reported.
A worst-case scenario could be “one in which America and the rest of the developed world refuse to welcome migrants but also fail to help them at home. As our model demonstrated, closing borders while stinting on development creates a somewhat counterintuitive population surge even as temperatures rise, trapping more and more people in places that are increasingly unsuited to human life,” writes Lustgarten.